Insights for Better Operations

Inventory Forecasting: A Smarter Way to Plan Purchases

A real-world look at how a multi-location materials supplier moved from manual Excel-based purchasing to faster, data-driven inventory forecasting with StockTrim.

Kaizen Tech Ops
Client Stories
6 mins read
May 21, 2026
image of a diverse team in a meeting (for a edtech)

Inventory purchasing is one of those business processes that can look simple from the outside.

Look at what sold. Check what is in stock. Place the next order.

But for businesses with thousands of SKUs, multiple locations, supplier lead times, seasonal demand, and changing customer behavior, purchasing can quickly become much more complicated.

When inventory planning depends too heavily on spreadsheets, averages, and experience, the business can end up with two problems at the same time:

Too much inventory in some products.

Not enough inventory in others.

That is exactly the type of challenge we helped a multi-location building materials business start solving with StockTrim.

The starting point: Excel, experience, and imperfect reorder points

The business had more than 3,000 SKUs, over 30 employees, and multiple locations and warehouses. They were using Microsip as their inventory and business system, and their purchasing process relied heavily on a spreadsheet that averaged the last 12 months of sales.

That spreadsheet gave them a number.

But it did not fully account for things like:

  • Seasonality
  • Sales trends
  • Product movement changes
  • Lead times
  • Overstock
  • Stockout risk
  • Differences between product lines
  • Actual forecasting behavior

Purchasing also depended on owner experience and reorder points, but the reorder points were not always accurate enough to reflect what was really happening in the business.

The result was a familiar inventory problem: too much stock in some areas, stockouts in others, and a lot of manual work to decide what needed to be ordered.

How the issue surfaced

This project did not originally start as an inventory forecasting project.

We were helping the company with a Monday.com implementation and interviewing team members to understand their current processes. During an interview with the purchasing employee, the inventory planning issue became clear.

The purchasing process was not just a task-management problem.

It was an operational visibility problem.

The team did not simply need a better board or checklist. They needed a better way to forecast demand, review inventory, and make purchasing decisions based on actual data.

That is when the focus shifted toward implementing StockTrim.

Why basic averages were not enough

A 12-month sales average can be useful as a quick reference, but it is limited.

If a product is seasonal, a flat average can miss the timing of demand. If sales are trending up or down, the average may lag behind what is actually happening. If the business has overstock, the average does not automatically tell the team how to correct it. If a product is at risk of stockout, the average may not show the urgency clearly enough.

Averages can answer:

“What has this product sold historically?”

But better forecasting should help answer:

“What are we likely to need, when will we need it, and what should we order next?”

That is a very different level of decision support.

What changed with StockTrim

StockTrim gave the business a better way to use its sales and inventory data for purchasing decisions.

Instead of manually calculating averages and reviewing product needs line by line, the team could upload updated data, review forecasts, and generate recommended order lists much faster.

For the first product line, the system was up and running within about a week. Since then, the implementation has expanded to three product lines, with more ramp-up continuing over time.

The workflow became much simpler:

  1. Export and prepare the data from Microsip.
  2. Upload the data into StockTrim.
  3. Review the forecast and order recommendations.
  4. Create purchase orders.
  5. Monitor results and adjust as needed.

Updating StockTrim now takes about 30 seconds per product line, and the forecast calculates almost immediately. What used to take hours can now be reviewed in minutes.

That time savings matters, but the bigger value is decision quality.

Better purchasing cadence

One of the important changes was not just the software. It was the purchasing rhythm.

The business moved to a weekly review cadence. On Mondays, data is uploaded into StockTrim, the forecasts are reviewed, and purchase orders are created based on the latest information.

That weekly rhythm gives the team a consistent process for reviewing inventory instead of relying on scattered manual requests or reactive purchasing decisions.

This is where software and operations have to work together.

A forecasting tool is more valuable when it becomes part of a clear business process.

Cleaner data, better setup, better decisions

A successful implementation is not just turning on the software.

For this project, the work included:

  • Cleaning and preparing the data
  • Connecting the Microsip export process with StockTrim
  • Configuring StockTrim to better support the forecasting needs
  • Training the team on how to use the platform
  • Helping create purchase orders
  • Following up on results and adjustments

That implementation layer matters because software alone does not fix a process.

The data has to be usable. The team has to understand how to review the recommendations. The purchasing cadence has to be practical. The outputs have to connect back to the way the business actually operates.

StockTrim created the forecasting engine, but the operational process around it is what helped the team start using it effectively.

From guesswork to factual purchasing

Before the implementation, purchasing decisions were based on a mix of Excel averages, reorder points, and experience.

Those inputs were not useless. Experience is valuable. Reorder points can help. Spreadsheets can support decision-making.

The issue is that they were not enough on their own.

Now, purchasing decisions are tied more directly to factual sales data, forecasting, and updated product information. That gives the team more confidence when deciding what to order, when to order it, and where adjustments are needed.

For a business carrying thousands of SKUs, that confidence is important.

Inventory decisions affect cash flow, customer experience, warehouse space, and operational focus. Better forecasting helps reduce the need to rely only on memory, habit, or manual calculations.

Overstock improves gradually

It is important to be honest about overstock.

If a business already has a lot of excess inventory, forecasting does not magically fix that overnight. Overstock usually improves gradually as purchasing becomes more disciplined and the business avoids adding unnecessary inventory on top of what already exists.

That was true here.

The business had significant overstock in certain areas, so the improvement has been a balancing process. The goal is to avoid making the problem worse while protecting against stockouts where demand is still active.

This is one reason inventory forecasting should not be viewed as a one-time setup.

It is an ongoing operational improvement process.

Stockouts can be prevented more proactively

Stockouts are often easier to feel than overstock.

When a product is not available, the business may lose a sale, delay a customer, or create extra work for the team. In a materials business, that can affect contractors, builders, and repeat buyers who depend on availability.

With better forecasting and weekly review, the team can identify products that need attention before the issue becomes urgent.

That does not mean every stockout disappears forever. Real-world inventory is affected by supplier delays, changing demand, data quality, and purchasing constraints.

But it does mean the business has a better system for seeing risk earlier and responding with more confidence.

The lesson: inventory forecasting is an operations issue

The biggest lesson from this project is that inventory forecasting is not just a purchasing tool.

It is an operations improvement opportunity.

When purchasing is manual, reactive, or based mostly on averages, the business can spend too much time trying to answer basic questions:

  • What needs to be ordered?
  • Which products are at risk of stockout?
  • Where do we have too much inventory?
  • What does demand actually look like?
  • Are we buying based on current data or old habits?

A good forecasting process makes those questions easier to answer.

That helps the purchasing team, but it also helps the business as a whole.

Where StockTrim fits

StockTrim is valuable because it helps turn sales and inventory data into practical forecasting and purchasing recommendations.

For businesses that manage many SKUs, that can be a major improvement over manually reviewing spreadsheets and trying to calculate needs by hand.

But the tool is most effective when it is implemented around the real business process.

That includes:

  • Preparing clean data
  • Understanding product lines
  • Setting the right forecasting parameters
  • Reviewing recommendations consistently
  • Adjusting based on results
  • Creating a purchasing rhythm the team can actually maintain

That is where Kaizen Tech Ops helps: not just recommending software, but helping connect the software to the way the business actually operates.

Is inventory forecasting worth exploring?

If your business is planning inventory with spreadsheets, manual calculations, or reorder points that no longer feel accurate, forecasting may be worth exploring.

Especially if you are dealing with:

  • Frequent stockouts
  • Excess inventory
  • Slow purchasing reviews
  • Too much cash tied up in products
  • Large SKU counts
  • Multiple warehouses or locations
  • Manual purchase planning
  • Poor visibility into what should be ordered next

Better forecasting will not replace good judgment. But it can give your team better information, faster recommendations, and a clearer process for making purchasing decisions.

Try StockTrim

If you want to explore inventory forecasting, you can start with a free StockTrim trial here:

[Start a free StockTrim trial]

Kaizen Tech Ops can also help with implementation, data preparation, setup, training, and building the process around how your business actually purchases inventory.

Want help figuring out if inventory forecasting fits your business?
Start a conversation with Kaizen Tech Ops.